Sunday, July 3, 2011

DECISIONS~DECISIONS~DECISIONS

*COMPLICATED, HIGH-STAKE SITUATIONS: The presense of multiple competing risks and benefits requires a formal, quantitative method to evaluate the optimal strategy.
*WHEN IMPORTANT DATA ARE NOT KNOWN WITH CERTAINTY: Decision analysis may reveal that a critical parameter is not well defined in the literature, rendering a single "best answer" unobtainable. Focusing the uncertainty on the missing variable rather than on the entire decision may permit a more informed choice by explicitly describing the effect of this variable on the outcome over a range of possible values.

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